CAPITAL INVESTMENT
CONVENTIONAL FUNDING
Federal planning regulations require long range transportation plans like the RTP to include a financial plan that shows consistency of the proposed investments with available and projected funds. The total expenditure identified in the RTP must not exceed the total revenue reasonably expected to be available for the region over the life of the Plan. The financial plan must reflect existing conditions, historic trends and costs calculated on a year of expenditure basis.
The process of projecting revenue and estimating costs over a 25-year period involves calculations built on reasonable assumptions but can be somewhat uncertain. Estimated costs are based on limited engineering detail and include estimated rates of inflation through year of expenditure. Estimated revenues are based on future federal and state funding sources and extrapolated funding growth rates. The ultimate accuracy of these projections depends on future legislative actions, which are difficult to predict.
PROJECTED REVENUE —
For 2025-2036, the years covering the Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) and Twelve-Year Plan (TYP), revenues are assumed to be consistent with the federal, state, and local funds provided on each program. For the years beyond that timeframe (2037-2050), revenue is projected using PennDOT’s 2025 Transportation Program Financial Guidance. More specifically, projected revenues are based on the average growth rate for each funding program in the 3rd 4-Year period of the TYP (2033-2036), which was generally close to zero. Funding totals often differ between those identified in Financial Guidance and those programmed due to the inclusion of statewide funds (such as TAP and and PROTECT), discretionary funds, and local funds after the TIP is initially developed/adopted. Because of this, programmed funds are used for revenue projections when available, such as the TIP and TYP timeframe, and Financial Guidance is used to estimate longer projections.
Interstate System improvements are programmed through the PennDOT Central Office’s Interstate Steering Committee and funded at the statewide level. Because of these factors, the high cost of Interstate projects, and the high level of variability in annual interstate expenditures, no interstate revenues were projected past the Twelve-Year Plan timeframe. Under these assumptions and this methodology, the total projected revenue anticipated to be available through 2050 is approximately $6.22 billion, as summarized in Table 1. A more detailed breakdown of the revenue projection is available here.
Table 1 - Estimated Revenue Summary
PROJECTED COSTS —
Costs were projected beginning with the FFY 2025-2028 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), which totals approximately $1.72 billion, $410 million of which is included on the Highway/Bridge TIP. An additional $300 million in the Twelve-Year Plan timeframe will be required to complete the projects programmed on the FFY 2025-2028 TIP. In total, PennDOT has estimated that the funding necessary to complete projects programmed on the 2025-2036 TYP and maintain the current condition of the transportation assets in the HATS region through 2036 is approximately $1.1 billion. When Interstate and transit costs are included, that total increases to $4.4 billion.
Through the rest of the RTP timeframe (2037-2050), costs were estimated to include asset management needs based on the average annual asset management costs in the Twelve-Year Plan, escalating 3% annually after 2037. Under these assumptions and this methodology, the total projected costs estimated for highway/bridge programmed projects and asset management needs through 2050 is approximately $2.40 billion. As shown in Table 2, approximately $92 million and $118 million are available for programming Project Pipeline needs in the mid- and long-range time frames, respectively.
Table 2 - Estimated Cost Summary
Through the Project Pipeline process, a total of 74 transportation needs were identified and evaluated. The estimated cost to complete these needs is between approximately $520 million (short-term) and $895 million (long-term). Based on the limited amount of funding available, as discussed above, 35 needs identified in the Project Pipeline are anticipated to be met by 2050 while maintaining fiscal constraint. In total, 39 regional transportation needs are unable to be met which total between $376 million (short-term) and $649 million (long-term). These remaining, unmet Transportation Needs have been listed as illustrative, along with needs and projects identified in regional transportation studies and planning documents. The complete illustrative project listing totals between $1.6 billion (short-term) and $2.8 billion (long-term). More information is provided in the Project Pipeline chapter.
This financial analysis relies on current economic guidance and conventions to estimate future available revenue and project cost estimates. The calculations do not consider any potential unforeseen economic events that may present a positive or negative impact to the current projection of available revenue, as well as estimates of project needs and associated costs. Any such major events – such as the establishment new federal transportation funding legislation – may necessitate a revision to the RTP.
The RTP and Project Pipeline is not intended to be a standalone funding program. The plan serves as the basis for determining project priorities among many competing regional transportation needs and improves the decision-making process for the development of the biannual TIP. Other funding opportunities including federal discretionary funds, PennDOT and DCED Multimodal Funds, and Public-Private Partnerships are identified in the following sections of the plan.
Full project listings, including FFY 2025-2036 Highway/Bridge and Interstate Twelve Year Plan and the FFY 2025-2028 Public Transit Transportation Improvement Program are available here. More information on the Transportation Improvement Program including interactive mapping is available here. More information on the Twelve Year Plan including interactive mapping is available here.