EMPLOYMENT SUMMARY
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY —
The location, distribution, and concentration of jobs in region has a significant impact on the transportation network. To provide a broad picture of the HATS region’s most important industries, Table 1 shows location quotients by industry for each county and the region as whole. Location quotients are calculated by dividing an industry’s share of county or regional total employment by the industry’s share of the national total employment. A location quotient greater than 1 indicates that industry is a relative specialty of the county or region, compared to the rest of the country.
As shown in Table 1, the most important industries in the HATS region are Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (in Cumberland and Perry Counties), Education and Health Services and State Government (both of which in Dauphin County). Other industries with high location quotients in specific counties include Federal Government in Cumberland County, and Natural Resources and Mining and Construction in Perry County.
As shown in Figure 1, Information, Financial Services, and State Government are among the industries with the most significant decrease in location quotient from 2013 to 2023. Over the same time period, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities as well as Education and Health Services had increased location quotients. These changes illustrate the ever-growing importance of the region’s warehousing/logistics, education, and healthcare industries.
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH —
The relative strength of the HATS region’s service industries, especially in Transportation, Trade, and Utilities, Education and Health Services, and State Government, is expected to drive employment growth in the decades to follow. Table 2 shows projected change in employment from 2020 to 2050, based on growth rates calculated by US Bureau of Labor Statistics and data from the PA Labor & Industry. Overall, the HATS region is projected to add just under 100,000 jobs by 2050, which is a 30.98% increase. Since the projected growth rates for all three counties are fairly consistent, the most employment growth is projected in Cumberland and Dauphin Counties.
Figure 1 - Change in Employment
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Table 1 - Location Quotient by Industry
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Projected employment growth by municipality is shown in the interactive mapping application. Table 4 shows the 10 municipalities with the highest projected employment growth. All 10 municipalities, with the exception of Carlisle Borough, are located along the highly developed corridor stretching from the Mechanicsburg area to eastern Dauphin County.
Table 2 - Change in Employment
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, PA Labor & Industry, TCRPC
Table 3 - Top 10 Projected Employment Growth by Municipality
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, PA Labor & Industry, TCRPC
JOURNEY TO WORK
COMMUTING PATTERNS —
Figure 2 - County to County Commute Flows
Source: US Census Bureau LEHD
Understanding how residents and workers commute is important in gaining a complete picture of the region’s travel patterns. According to US Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) data, there are approximately 25.36% more jobs (339,873) than workers (271,115) in the HATS region. This translates into more people traveling into the region to fill available employment positions. Figure 2 illustrates these regional movements as Cumberland and Dauphin Counties experience a net gain of daily commuters (19,238 and 62,697 respectively), while Perry County experiences a net loss of 13,177. Dauphin County has the highest percentage of residents that work within the same county (52.5%), followed by Cumberland County (43.6%) and Perry County (18.5%).
Figure 3 illustrates LEHD commute trip data for Harrisburg City and eastern Cumberland County. As the municipality with the largest number of jobs, Harrisburg City draws a net gain of commute trips from communities on the East and West Shores. The Dauphin County communities generally surrounding Harrisburg City – Susquehanna, Lower Paxton, and Swatara
Townships – experience relatively high levels of commute to work trips. The greatest concentration of commute to work trips in Cumberland County is between the West Shore, Hampden, Lower Allen and East Pennsboro Townships. There are also significant cross-river work trips between suburban communities, such as Lower Paxton and Hampden Townships.
Both Cumberland and Dauphin Counties have secondary employment and population centers. As shown in Figure 4, Derry Township in Dauphin County draws commute to work trips from nearly every surrounding community, including those in neighboring Lebanon County. One measure of the strength of Derry Township is their net gain of worker trips from Harrisburg City. Figure 5 shows the commute to work trips in the area surrounding Carlisle Borough. Similar to Derry Township in Dauphin County, Carlisle Borough draws worker trips from nearly every adjacent community but also sees worker trips made into Harrisburg City.
Figure 3 - Dauphin County Commute Flows
Source: US Census Bureau LEHD
Figure 4 - Harrisburg Commute Flows
Source: US Census Bureau LEHD
Figure 5 - Cumberland County Commute Flows
Source: US Census Bureau LEHD
Outside of these specific areas, commute to work trips are much less concentrated. In general, Harrisburg City is still the largest single draw for worker trips, but most communities experience numbers just as high traveling to other surrounding rural communities for their commute.
COMMUTE MODE —
After decades of increasing levels of “driving alone” and decreasing levels of virtually all other commuting modes, that trend began changing after the COVID-19 pandemic as more businesses embraced working from home and technology changes made ridesharing (which is included in the taxicab, motorcycle, and other category) more accessible and convenient. Walking and public transportation experienced modest decreases, while bicycling stayed generally the same, which is generally consistent with decades-long trends. Carpooling experienced a larger decrease, likely a result of the increase in ridesharing.
Source: US Census Bureau
However, the most significant change between 2012 and 2022 is the decreasing “driving alone” and increasing “working from home”. This has had significant impacts on not just transportation volumes and demand (particularly at AM and PM peak periods), but also economic development and walking and biking numbers in downtown/central business districts throughout both the region and the state. These trends are particularly impactful in Harrisburg City because of the government agencies (who make up a large proportion of total employees) allowing work from home for many of its employees.
COMMUTE TIME —
Due to the geography and distribution of jobs in the region, workers living Perry County experience significantly longer commute times on average than workers living in Cumberland and Dauphin Counties. In Perry County, 58.1% of workers have a commute time greater than 30 minutes, compared to just 24.7% in Cumberland County and 25.0% in Dauphin County. Conversely, approximately 50% of workers in Cumberland and Dauphin Counties have commutes less than 20 minutes, compared to only 25.8% of Perry County workers.
Source: US Census Bureau