POPULATION & HOUSEHOLDS
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION & DENSITY —
The distribution and density of our region’s residents is one of the most basic considerations of transportation planning. According to the 2020 Decennial Census, the HATS Region is home to 591,712 people with an average density of 354.64 people per square mile. Table 1 displays population totals and density by county, showing disparities between the more populous and developed Cumberland and Dauphin Counties and the predominantly rural Perry County. Ignoring the county boundaries, more than 75% of the region’s population lives within the urbanized area that generally extends from Mechanicsburg in Cumberland County to Derry Township in Dauphin County, which has an average density of more than 1,200 people per square mile.
Table 1 - Population Totals and Density
Source: US Census Bureau
To view the Population and Population Density data by municipality, click here for the interactive mapping application.
Table 2 - Population Growth by County
Source: US Census Bureau, PA State Data Center
POPULATION GROWTH —
As shown in Table 2 and Figure 1, the HATS Region has experienced steady growth since 1990, increasing by 19.85%. Cumberland County (24.75%) grew the fastest, while Perry County (10.19%) grew more slowly. This disparity in growth rates has led to Perry County’s share of the population reducing from approximately 8.7% in 1990 to approximately 7.7% in 2020.
Through 2050, population is projected to grow by 10.31%, a slower rate of growth over the next 30 years compared to the previous 30 years (since 1990). Cumberland County, while still projected to be the fastest growing county in the region, is projected to grow about half as fast from 2020 to 2050 than they grew from 1990 to 2020. Perry County, however, is projected to experience a 4.76% decline in population through 2050, consistent with wider population trends away from rural areas. Table 3 shows the growth in population will primarily occur in the region’s townships, with slower growth in boroughs, and a decline in Harrisburg City. When viewed alongside the map of population growth by municipality, it is evident that population growth will be seen predominantly in the same Mechanicsburg to Derry Township corridor mentioned above, with a slight westward expansion to the areas surrounding Carlisle Borough.
Table 3 - Population Growth by Type
Source: US Census Bureau, PA State Data Center
Figure 1 - Population Growth 1990 - 2050
Source: US Census Bureau, PA State Data Center
To view the Projected Population Growth and Population Density data by municipality, click here for the interactive mapping application.
HOUSEHOLD TRENDS —
In addition to the changes in population totals and densities our region is experiencing, households continue to evolve. As shown in Table 4, total households in the HATS Region grew by 22.91% from 1990 to 2020. Cumberland County’s total households grew the fastest, with Dauphin and Perry County experiencing similar rates of growth.
From 1990 to 2020, total households in the HATS Region grew more quickly than total population which lead to the reduction in the persons per household shown in Chart 2. Overall, Perry County has seen the largest and most consistent decrease in persons per household, with Dauphin County experiencing a more modest decrease that appears to have stabilized since 2000.
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH —
Moving forward, the region is projected to add more than 40,000 households through 2050, which represents a 17.39% growth rate. As seen in Table 5, the household growth rate for each county varies widely with Cumberland County (26.18%) growing the fastest and Perry County (1.04%) growing the slowest. This is reflective of both the projected population changes and the historical trends in household size. Perry County’s declining average household size offsets its projected population decrease, resulting in a very low, but still positive projected growth rate for households. Conversely, Cumberland County high projected population growth and its declining average household size resulted in the largest projected household increase in the region. Lastly, Dauphin County has experienced relatively little change in average household size since 1990, which results in a projected household increase at a very similar rate to its projected population increase.
To view the Projected Household Growth data by municipality, click here for the interactive mapping application.
Table 4 - Total Households by County
Source: US Census Bureau
Figure 2 - Persons per Household (1990 - 2020)
Source: US Census Bureau
Table 5 - Projected Households by County
Source: US Census Bureau, PA State Data Center
OTHER DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
For the following indicators, American Community Survey data (2018-2022 5-year estimates) was used to depict the general distribution and concentration of important populations related to transportation planning. Many of these populations have specific needs or challenges in accessing or using our region’s transportation system. The tables below provide a broad overview of each population for the region as a whole and per county, while the maps show a finer level of geographic detail (census block groups or tracts, where applicable).
To view the Demographic Indicators, click here for the interactive mapping application.
ELDERLY POPULATION —
The region’s elderly population is estimated to be 107,596 or 18.13% of the region’s total population. There is relatively low variability between the counties, with the highest and lowest being separated by less than 2%. Examining the map shows a relatively even distribution throughout the region by percentage, with geographic concentrations of elderly population consistent with concentrations of the overall population.
The region's elderly population - and their transportation needs - is discussed further in the Mobility & Accessibility chapter.
Source: ACS 2018-2022 Estimates
YOUNG POPULATION —
The region’s population of young people is estimated to be 126,193 or 21.27% of the region’s total population. Like the elderly population, there is relatively low variability between the counties, with the highest and lowest being separated by less than 2%. Examining the map shows a relatively even distribution throughout the region by percentage, with geographic concentrations of elderly population consistent with concentrations of the overall population.
DISABLED POPULATION —
Source: ACS 2018-2022 Estimates
The region’s disabled population is estimated to be 75,322 or 12.92% of the region’s total population. Like the elderly and young populations, there is relatively low variability between the counties, with the highest and lowest being separated by just over 1%. Examining the map shows a relatively even distribution throughout the region by percentage, with geographic concentrations of elderly population consistent with concentrations of the overall population.
The region's disabled population - and their transportation needs - is discussed further in the Mobility & Accessibility chapter.
Source: ACS 2018-2022 Estimates
LOW-INCOME POPULATION —
The region’s low-income population is estimated to be 57,167 or 9.94% of the region’s total population. Dauphin County’s low-income population makes up a significantly higher percentage of the total population than Cumberland and Perry Counties. In fact, approximately 60% of the region’s low-income population is located in Dauphin County. Examining the map also shows areas of Harrisburg City, Steelton Borough, and northern Dauphin County communities with concentrations of higher-than-average low-income populations.
The region's low-income population - and their transportation needs - is discussed further in the Demographic Impacts chapter.
Table 9 - Low-income Population
Source: ACS 2018-2022 Estimates
RACIAL & ETHNIC MINORITY POPULATION —
The region’s minority population (defined within census data as anything other “non-Hispanic, white alone”) is estimated to be 153,262 or 25.83% of the region’s total population. There is a high level of variability between the counties, with Dauphin County accounting for nearly 70% and Perry County accounting for less than 2% of the region’s total minority population. Examining the map also shows a high concentration in Harrisburg City, Steelton Borough and their surrounding communities.
The region's low-income population - and their transportation needs - is discussed further in the Demographic Impacts chapter.
Table 10 - Minority Population
Source: ACS 2018-2022 Estimates
LIMITED ENGLISH PROFICIENCY HOUSEHOLDS —
The region’s households with limited English proficiency are estimated to total 5,419 or 2.26% of the region’s total. While the overall numbers are relatively low, there is a high level of variability between the counties, with Dauphin County accounting for just over 70% and Perry County accounting for less than 1% of the region’s total. Examining the map also shows high concentrations in Harrisburg City, Steelton Borough and their surrounding communities, as well as near Carlisle Borough.
Source: ACS 2018-2022 Estimates